LIVE 7:42 PM / Northern Vermont Conditions
How to read this & sources
pinch to zoom the map · dots = live temperature · blue = below freezing (blended from the stations by height) · dashed = 32°F line on the terrain · App Gap = VTrans road-weather station on VT-17, via Synoptic (fallbacks: New England 511, Iowa Environmental Mesonet); the ridge forecast is NWS Burlington’s for this hour · wind barbs (Beaufort): the staff points to where the wind comes from, one feather per force level, a pennant at force 10; the Wind button switches the labels to direction and speed in mph (now–top gust in the last hour) · white = ski trails, dark = lifts (© OpenStreetMap contributors) · grey = main roads (VT 100, VT 100C, VT 105, VT 108, VT 109, VT 118, VT 15, VT 242, VT 58) · dots are nudged slightly off the trails and apart from each other so everything stays readableWeather Watch / Cold front
Big cold front Mon 2 pm
Cold front: the base drops about 20°, from 61° Mon 2 pm to 41° by Tue 7 am. Expect a wind shift to the northwest and gusty wind behind it.
How to read this & sources
temperature at each spot’s own height from ECMWF, following the model’s own layers · shown when something out of the ordinary is coming: heavy rain, a big cold front, the first freeze, high wind or strong stormsWhat to expectgroomers: soft and sticky · trees: thin cover
What to Expect / On the Snow
Models: same recipe, rules of thumb · why ›
Snow: the Storm Snow recipe at the summit. Temperatures: the Up South blend. Wind: the NWS ridge forecast.
Each call is a rule of thumb on those numbers, for example snowmaking needs about 26°F or colder up top. Snow depth is ECMWF’s own estimate, which can’t see grooming or snowmaking. A weather read, not an avalanche forecast.
Soft and sticky: spring snow, wet by afternoon (base near 61°).
Thin cover (about 0″ up top): rocks and stumps; stick to well-known glades.
Wind-loaded slopes near the ridge (gusts to 29 mph with new snow): lee, usually east-facing, slopes collect it.
How to read this & sources
Model inputs (Up South blend for temperature; snow = 5-model average turned to snow by ECMWF temperature): new snow last 3 days 4.6″, next 2 days 0.0″, base rain last 3 days 0.88″, summit snow depth 0″, next 24 h summit 33–50°, base 40–61°, ridge gusts to 29 mph. · a weather read, not an avalanche forecastElevation temp profile38° top · 43° bottom
Elevation Temp Profile / West & East
How to read this & sources
every station by height, top of the mountain first, west of the spine on the left and east on the right (ridge stations top both) · navy = wind now, to the top gust in the last hour · blue = below freezing · ❄︎ = cold and dry enough for snowguns (wet bulb 27° or below)WebcamsApp Gap, Sugarbush, MRG
Webcams
Village cam Smugglers' Notch · live ›
Madonna/Sterling base Smugglers' Notch · live ›Snow on the groundstake – · none coming in 3 days
Accumulation / On the Ground & Coming
Forecast new snow
Models: 5-model average, each spot’s height · why ›
The Storm Snow recipe: 5-model average, ECMWF temperature, each spot’s own height, 18:1 snow in the dendrite zone.
Over 2 winters this recipe’s totals came within 2 to 8% of what 5 local snow observers measured, better than any single model or than using corrected temperatures. It still misses plenty of single 4″+ days (it caught 17 to 18 of 55). Since then it uses fluffier 18:1 snow when the air aloft is in the dendrite zone, which removed its low bias in the storm backtest. No correction is applied to the precipitation.
| Where | Next 24 h | Next 3 days |
|---|---|---|
| Mt Mansfield 4,395 ft | none | none |
| Mansfield Summit 3,920 ft | none | none |
| Mansfield West 2,236 ft | none | none |
| Jay Pass 2,203 ft | none | none |
| Jay Stateside 1,974 ft | none | none |
| Robinson Springs 1,751 ft | none | none |
| VT-242 west 1,683 ft | none | none |
| Stowe Mtn Rd 1,405 ft | none | none |
| Montgomery Ctr 1,212 ft | none | none |
| Eden hills 1,202 ft | none | none |
| Lowell VT-100 1,169 ft | none | none |
| Johnson 953 ft | none | none |
| N Hyde Park 915 ft | none | none |
| Morrisville 709 ft | none | none |
| Jeffersonville 659 ft | none | none |
How to read this & sources
forecast at each spot’s own height: average precipitation of 5 models turned to snow by temperature, the recipe that scored best against 5 local snow observers over 2 winters · runs light in upslope setups7 daysfull table
Snow Outlook / 7 Days
Models: 5-model snow, 8-model temperatures · why ›
Snow: 5-model average with ECMWF temperature, 18:1 in the dendrite zone. Temperatures: the Up South blend of 8 models. Freezing level: GFS. Gusts: ECMWF.
Temperatures are corrected. Each model’s typical miss at MRG Midstation, Lincoln Base and MRG Base over 2 winters is removed for each lead time, and the models are weighted by how well they did. One day out, ECMWF alone misses by 4.1°F, 3.3°F once its cold bias is removed, and the blend by about 2.5°F. On the same day the blend leans on the HRRR (2.3°F).
Snow uses uncorrected ECMWF temperature on purpose (see Storm Snow). Freezing level comes from the GFS because ECMWF doesn’t publish one through our data source; it isn’t scored yet. Gusts are raw ECMWF, not corrected or scored on the ridge. At Porter’s station forecasts run about 5 times windier than measured, but that’s a sheltered spot, so no correction is applied up top.
| Day | Snow | Summit | Base | Freezing level | Top gust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 10/18 | dry | 34–37° | 41–46° | 11,500–11,900 ft | 17 |
| Mon 10/19 | dry | 33–50° | 40–61° | 10,700–11,700 ft | 13 |
| Tue 10/20 | dry | 29–44° | 39–54° | 10,700–11,900 ft | 20 |
| Wed 10/21 | dry | 25–44° | 34–54° | 10,500–12,100 ft | 11 |
| Thu 10/22 | dry | 26–40° | 35–50° | 4,200–11,500 ft | 19 |
| Fri 10/23 | dry | 25–38° | 34–47° | 1,000–7,000 ft | 25 |
| Sat 10/24 | dry | 23–43° | 31–53° | 800–10,600 ft | 21 |
How to read this & sources
Mt Mansfield (4,395 ft) and Stowe Mansfield Base (1,565 ft) · snow = average precipitation of 5 models turned to snow by ECMWF temperature, the recipe that scored best against 5 local snow observers over 2 winters · freezing level from GFS · temperatures from the Up South blend (8 models, corrected and weighted by a 2-winter backtest)NWS Mt Mansfield35–50° up top, gusts to 29
Mt Mansfield Summit / Next 36 Hours
Models: NWS forecasters, unchanged · why ›
None of ours. This is NWS Burlington’s mountain forecast for Mt Mansfield, as they publish it.
NWS forecasters start from the models and adjust by hand for the terrain. We show it unchanged. We haven’t scored it against the mountain stations yet.
TONIGHT Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
MONDAY Sunny. Highs around 50. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph, becoming north after midnight.
TUESDAY Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the lower 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph.
| When | Temp | Precip | Snow | Feels | Wind mph | Summit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 6p | 40° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 31° | SW 17 g20 | 4% cloud |
| Sun 9p | 41° | 0% | 31° | WSW 21 g29 | 6% cloud | |
| Mon 12a | 40° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 31° | SW 19 g26 | 2% cloud |
| Mon 3a | 38° | 0% | 29° | SW 17 g23 | 3% cloud | |
| Mon 6a | 38° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 29° | WSW 16 g23 | 2% cloud |
| Mon 9a | 40° | 0% | 34° | SW 9 g13 | 1% cloud | |
| Mon 12p | 47° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 41° | SW 13 g13 | 4% cloud |
| Mon 3p | 50° | 0% | 45° | WSW 12 g12 | 8% cloud | |
| Mon 6p | 45° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 40° | W 10 g10 | 28% cloud |
| Mon 9p | 42° | 0% | 36° | NW 10 g10 | 22% cloud | |
| Tue 12a | 39° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 31° | N 12 g12 | 36% cloud |
| Tue 3a | 35° | 0% | 26° | N 13 g13 | 48% cloud | |
| Tue 6a | 36° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 27° | N 14 g14 | 54% cloud |
| Tue 9a | 39° | 0% | 30° | N 17 g17 | 72% cloud | |
| Tue 12p | 42° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 34° | N 16 g17 | 19% cloud |
| Tue 3p | 43° | 0% | 35° | N 16 g17 | 14% cloud | |
| Tue 6p | 39° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 30° | N 18 g18 | 15% cloud |
Sensors14 stations live
Sensors / Right Now
Sugarbush
| Mt Mansfield 4,395 ft | 40° | NWS forecast for this hour; no live station up top | WSW 19 g24 mph feels like 31° |
Smuggs side
| Jeffersonville 659 ft | 43° | wet bulb 40° 81% humidity | WSW 1 g5 mph 24h low –° · rain –″ |
| Mansfield West 2,236 ft | 41° | wet bulb –° –% humidity | 24h low –° · rain –″ |
Lamoille
| Morrisville 709 ft | 39° | wet bulb 37° 87% humidity | N 0 g– mph 24h low –° · rain –″ |
| N Hyde Park 915 ft | 44° | wet bulb 39° 76% humidity | ENE 1 g2 mph 24h low 25° · rain 0.00″ |
| Johnson 953 ft | 51° | wet bulb 43° 60% humidity | NE 3 g18 mph 24h low 25° · rain 0.00″ |
| Lowell VT-100 1,169 ft | 41° | wet bulb 37° 80% humidity | S 2 g3 mph 24h low –° · rain –″ |
| Eden hills 1,202 ft | 45° | wet bulb 41° 76% humidity | SSW 1 g4 mph 24h low 29° · rain 0.00″ |
Montgomery
| Montgomery Ctr 1,212 ft | 46° | wet bulb 41° 71% humidity | NNE 0 g5 mph 24h low 27° · rain 0.00″ |
| VT-242 west 1,683 ft | 44° | wet bulb 40° 76% humidity | E 0 g2 mph 24h low 26° · rain 0.00″ |
Stowe
| Stowe Mtn Rd 1,405 ft | 42° | wet bulb 39° 88% humidity | SSE 0 g1 mph 24h low 29° · rain 0.00″ |
| Robinson Springs 1,751 ft | 45° | wet bulb 40° 69% humidity | S 0 g2 mph 24h low 44° · rain 0.00″ |
Jay Peak
| Jay Stateside 1,974 ft | 48° | wet bulb 40° 56% humidity | N 2 g9 mph 24h low 31° · rain 0.00″ |
Ridge
| Jay Pass 2,203 ft | 42° | wet bulb 37° 70% humidity | NNW 7 g9 mph 24h low –° · rain –″ |
| Mansfield Summit 3,920 ft | 38° | wet bulb –° –% humidity | SW 31 g36 mph 24h low –° · rain –″ |