LIVE 7:42 PM / Southern Vermont Conditions
How to read this & sources
pinch to zoom the map · dots = live temperature · blue = below freezing (blended from the stations by height) · dashed = 32°F line on the terrain · App Gap = VTrans road-weather station on VT-17, via Synoptic (fallbacks: New England 511, Iowa Environmental Mesonet); the ridge forecast is NWS Burlington’s for this hour · wind barbs (Beaufort): the staff points to where the wind comes from, one feather per force level, a pennant at force 10; the Wind button switches the labels to direction and speed in mph (now–top gust in the last hour) · white = ski trails, dark = lifts (© OpenStreetMap contributors) · grey = main roads (US 4, VT 100, VT 100A, VT 103, VT 155) · dots are nudged slightly off the trails and apart from each other so everything stays readableWeather Watch / Cold front
Big cold front Tue 3 pm
Cold front: the base drops about 22°, from 56° Tue 3 pm to 34° by Wed 7 am. Expect a wind shift to the northwest and gusty wind behind it.
How to read this & sources
temperature at each spot’s own height from ECMWF, following the model’s own layers · shown when something out of the ordinary is coming: heavy rain, a big cold front, the first freeze, high wind or strong stormsWhat to expectgroomers: pre-season · trees: nothing to ski yet
What to Expect / On the Snow
Models: same recipe, rules of thumb · why ›
Snow: the Storm Snow recipe at the summit. Temperatures: the Up South blend. Wind: the NWS ridge forecast.
Each call is a rule of thumb on those numbers, for example snowmaking needs about 26°F or colder up top. Snow depth is ECMWF’s own estimate, which can’t see grooming or snowmaking. A weather read, not an avalanche forecast.
Pre-season. No snowpack on the ground yet.
No snowmaking-cold nights in the next week (needs about 26°F or colder up top).
Nothing to ski yet.
How to read this & sources
Model inputs (Up South blend for temperature; snow = 5-model average turned to snow by ECMWF temperature): new snow last 3 days 0.1″, next 2 days 0.0″, base rain last 3 days 0.76″, summit snow depth 0″, next 24 h summit 33–52°, base 39–60°, ridge gusts to 16 mph. · a weather read, not an avalanche forecastElevation temp profile46° top · 39° bottom
Elevation Temp Profile / West & East
How to read this & sources
every station by height, top of the mountain first, west of the spine on the left and east on the right (ridge stations top both) · navy = wind now, to the top gust in the last hour · blue = below freezing · ❄︎ = cold and dry enough for snowguns (wet bulb 27° or below)WebcamsApp Gap, Sugarbush, MRG
Webcams
Bear Mountain Killington · live ›
Pico base Pico · live ›Snow on the groundstake – · none coming in 3 days
Accumulation / On the Ground & Coming
Forecast new snow
Models: 5-model average, each spot’s height · why ›
The Storm Snow recipe: 5-model average, ECMWF temperature, each spot’s own height, 18:1 snow in the dendrite zone.
Over 2 winters this recipe’s totals came within 2 to 8% of what 5 local snow observers measured, better than any single model or than using corrected temperatures. It still misses plenty of single 4″+ days (it caught 17 to 18 of 55). Since then it uses fluffier 18:1 snow when the air aloft is in the dendrite zone, which removed its low bias in the storm backtest. No correction is applied to the precipitation.
| Where | Next 24 h | Next 3 days |
|---|---|---|
| Killington Peak 4,211 ft | none | none |
| Killington Skye 2,395 ft | none | none |
| Pico Base 2,224 ft | none | none |
| Sherburne Pass 2,139 ft | none | none |
| Okemo Mtn Rd 2,074 ft | none | none |
| Plymouth 1,877 ft | none | none |
| Killington Rd 1,774 ft | none | none |
| Ludlow 1,720 ft | none | none |
| Mt Holly VT-103 1,515 ft | none | none |
How to read this & sources
forecast at each spot’s own height: average precipitation of 5 models turned to snow by temperature, the recipe that scored best against 5 local snow observers over 2 winters · runs light in upslope setups7 daysfull table
Snow Outlook / 7 Days
Models: 5-model snow, 8-model temperatures · why ›
Snow: 5-model average with ECMWF temperature, 18:1 in the dendrite zone. Temperatures: the Up South blend of 8 models. Freezing level: GFS. Gusts: ECMWF.
Temperatures are corrected. Each model’s typical miss at MRG Midstation, Lincoln Base and MRG Base over 2 winters is removed for each lead time, and the models are weighted by how well they did. One day out, ECMWF alone misses by 4.1°F, 3.3°F once its cold bias is removed, and the blend by about 2.5°F. On the same day the blend leans on the HRRR (2.3°F).
Snow uses uncorrected ECMWF temperature on purpose (see Storm Snow). Freezing level comes from the GFS because ECMWF doesn’t publish one through our data source; it isn’t scored yet. Gusts are raw ECMWF, not corrected or scored on the ridge. At Porter’s station forecasts run about 5 times windier than measured, but that’s a sheltered spot, so no correction is applied up top.
| Day | Snow | Summit | Base | Freezing level | Top gust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 10/18 | dry | 34–37° | 41–44° | 11,800–12,200 ft | 11 |
| Mon 10/19 | dry | 33–52° | 39–60° | 10,900–12,300 ft | 14 |
| Tue 10/20 | dry | 33–49° | 39–56° | 10,700–12,100 ft | 21 |
| Wed 10/21 | dry | 28–47° | 34–54° | 11,900–12,400 ft | 15 |
| Thu 10/22 | dry | 29–45° | 36–53° | 5,100–12,000 ft | 21 |
| Fri 10/23 | dry | 29–42° | 35–49° | 1,900–8,700 ft | 25 |
| Sat 10/24 | dry | 26–46° | 33–54° | 1,400–10,000 ft | 20 |
How to read this & sources
Killington Peak (4,211 ft) and Killington Snowshed Base (2,183 ft) · snow = average precipitation of 5 models turned to snow by ECMWF temperature, the recipe that scored best against 5 local snow observers over 2 winters · freezing level from GFS · temperatures from the Up South blend (8 models, corrected and weighted by a 2-winter backtest)NWS Killington Peak37–52° up top, gusts to 21
Killington Peak Summit / Next 36 Hours
Models: NWS forecasters, unchanged · why ›
None of ours. This is NWS Burlington’s mountain forecast for Killington Peak, as they publish it.
NWS forecasters start from the models and adjust by hand for the terrain. We show it unchanged. We haven’t scored it against the mountain stations yet.
TONIGHT Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
MONDAY Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. West winds around 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 20 mph.
TUESDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 20 to 25 mph.
| When | Temp | Precip | Snow | Feels | Wind mph | Summit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 6p | 43° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 36° | W 13 g16 | 5% cloud |
| Sun 9p | 40° | 0% | 33° | W 11 g16 | 5% cloud | |
| Mon 12a | 38° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 32° | W 9 g13 | 5% cloud |
| Mon 3a | 37° | 0% | 30° | W 9 g16 | 3% cloud | |
| Mon 6a | 38° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 32° | W 9 g13 | 3% cloud |
| Mon 9a | 40° | 0% | 36° | W 5 g9 | 0% cloud | |
| Mon 12p | 48° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 44° | W 8 g8 | 6% cloud |
| Mon 3p | 52° | 0% | 52° | W 6 g6 | 42% cloud | |
| Mon 6p | 48° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 44° | N 8 g8 | 34% cloud |
| Mon 9p | 43° | 0% | 38° | NNW 9 g9 | 13% cloud | |
| Tue 12a | 40° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 32° | N 14 g14 | 26% cloud |
| Tue 3a | 40° | 0% | 30° | N 20 g20 | 21% cloud | |
| Tue 6a | 39° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 29° | NNE 21 g21 | 40% cloud |
| Tue 9a | 42° | 0% | 32° | NNE 23 g23 | 24% cloud | |
| Tue 12p | 44° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 35° | NNE 21 g21 | 17% cloud |
| Tue 3p | 46° | 0% | 39° | N 18 g18 | 16% cloud | |
| Tue 6p | 43° | 0% | 0″ next 6 h | 34° | NNE 20 g20 | 13% cloud |
Sensors8 stations live
Sensors / Right Now
Sugarbush
| Killington Peak 4,211 ft | 42° | NWS forecast for this hour; no live station up top | W 13 g16 mph feels like 35° |
Valleys
| Mt Holly VT-103 1,515 ft | 39° | wet bulb 36° 84% humidity | ESE 1 g4 mph 24h low –° · rain –″ |
| Plymouth 1,877 ft | 44° | wet bulb 38° 65% humidity | SE 2 g4 mph 24h low 26° · rain 0.00″ |
Okemo
| Ludlow 1,720 ft | 47° | wet bulb 39° 54% humidity | N 3 g4 mph 24h low 29° · rain 0.00″ |
| Okemo Mtn Rd 2,074 ft | 43° | wet bulb 38° 71% humidity | SW 0 g1 mph 24h low 31° · rain 0.00″ |
Killington & Pico
| Killington Rd 1,774 ft | 43° | wet bulb –° –% humidity | ENE 2 g6 mph 24h low 43° · rain 0.00″ |
| Pico Base 2,224 ft | 42° | wet bulb 38° 76% humidity | W 3 g4 mph 24h low 27° · rain 0.00″ |
| Killington Skye 2,395 ft | 46° | wet bulb 39° 60% humidity | SSE 2 g14 mph 24h low 28° · rain 0.00″ |
Ridge
| Sherburne Pass 2,139 ft | 44° | wet bulb 37° 61% humidity | SW 2 g14 mph 24h low –° · rain –″ |